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Saturday, April 18, 2020

21 Period Moving Average as your only trading tool

I am finding that the 21 Period moving Average is the only indicator you will need.


On a daily chart plot the 21 ema.


Long trade:
When price crosses (rises) above the 21 ema enter long
When price is riding above the 21 ema stay long with the trade
When price crosses (falls) to below the 21 ema exit the long trade


Short trade:
When price crosses (falls) below the 21 ema enter short trade
Stay short as price runs below the 21 ema
Exit/Cover short when price crosses (rises) above the 21 ema


Reduce wiplash:
Price can often move above and below the 21 ema causing false signals (wiplash).
In order to reduce wiplash, use a 5 ema to smooth out the price fluctuations.
So then we get a 5/21 period ema crossover startegy


Follow the trend:
Trading in the direction of the trend is the key.

When 5 ema > 21 ema trend is up
When 5 ema < 21 ema trend is down.

When 5 ema rises above 21 ema, enter long
When 5 ema falls below 21 ema, can go short


10 ema - Early warning:
I find it useful to also add the 10 ema as well. I use the 10 ema as an early warning indicator,
I.E. When 5 ema drops below the 10 ema, it serves as an early warning signal that the uptrend is weakening and vice versa when 5 ema rises above the 10 ema, that the uptreand is begnning to gain strength.

When the 10 and 21 emas are far apart, I take action on 1/2 my position at the 5/10 ema cross and the rest 1/2 of the position at the 5/21 ema cross.

When the 10 and 21 emas are close together, I take action on the 5/21 ema cross.


Conclusion:
21 ema is your main trading indicator.
In addition, you can use the 5 ema as a proxy for price. The 5 ema does not produce too much of a lag.
I also use the 10 ema as an early warning mecanism.
For higly volatile securities, such as leveraged etfs, one can use the 21 ema on a 60 minute chart in addition to the daily chart.








Tuesday, March 31, 2020

Timeframes to use

What timeframes to use for trading?

For Swing Trade
Use the daily chart with 8, 21, 50 and 200 ema for big picture
Use the 60 minutes chart to time entry and exit --- 5/21 ema crossover

Optional:
Can use 30 minutes chart --- 5/21 crossover as an early warning mehanism.


Day Trade
Use the 5 and/or 15 minutes chart with 10 ema --- Price/10 ema crossover






Saturday, February 15, 2020

High Volatility Covered Call Strategy - Volatility Call Writing


Writing covered calls on volatile stocks for swing trading

The idea is to capture the stock movement when it swings within its short term range from high to low. The calls are written at the top of the ATR  or the stock's range high as indicated by an indicator such as RSI, on the expectation of buying them back when the stock moves down in its range.

Pick a stock  that is volatile, i.e. stock that moves a good bit in the course of the week, sometimes during a single day, i.e a stock that has a faily large ATR (average true range).

When the stock moves up by a sufficient amont and can pull back in its range, sell covered calls that are deep in the money. 

You can use the following methods to know that the stock has moved up by a good amount and can pull back:
  • Stock has moved up by an ATR
  • The RSI has risen above 70 and is reversing/ falling back below 70. I use the 15 minute RSI on highly volatile stocks.

Also note that one has to sell DITM (deep in the money) calls that have a delta of 80% or above, so that the call options move pretty much in tandum with the stock.

When the stock moves lower in its range, close/ buy back the call at a lower price.

We are simply trading the call option and do not intend to hold the option to expiration. On volatile stocks, it may be feasible to sell and close the calls several times in the span of a month, yielding a return that can exceed 10% a month. This strategy relies on trading for the generation of profits. Obviously, capitalizing on such trades requires monitoring them closely in order in order to seize upon moves that yield a worthwhile profit. The trader will need to be available to watch the price movements.



Saturday, February 8, 2020

Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 3X Shares (NUGT)

NUGT 60 minutes

Use 8/21 EMA crossovers to buy/sell

Confirmation V/S Price
NUGT moves around a lot and the EMA crossovers can create false signals/whiplash. One can wait for an entire 60 minute candle to clear the 21 EMA for confirmation, but that will not give you as good a price. The trade off is confirmation versus price.
After the 8/21 EMAs' cross, I do not wait for any further confirmation, rather I take the signal at that point.